TRENDS
TO KEEP AN EYE ON
Hong Kong - a hike in currency
conversion fees; Lebanon - on
the edge of civil war, again; Nigeria
- risk of a new wave of violence impairing oil productions; Romania - higher interest rates; Slovakia - ready to replace the
crown with the euro.
Page 2 |
CZECH
REPUBLIC
Evidently convinced that inflation
is not as bad as it may appear, the CB has been holding interest rates
steady. With the crown ruling strong in the FX markets and budget
policy being fairly tight, this may well be, for now, the best policy,
even though the top court has just struck down an important part of
fiscal reforms.
Page 13 |
ARGENTINA
The country's farmers are getting
ready to launch another nation-wide strike. The regime of Pres.
Fernandez, in which ex-Pres. Kirchner still calls the shots on economic
policy, finds it difficult to yield without looking weak. this means
that the confrontation is likely to sharpen.
Page 3 |
ITALY
The Silvio Berlusconi who was returned to the
Premiership in last month's elections is in many ways different from
the man who was first elected PM 14 years ago. It is highly doubtful
that the country, under his stewardship, will undertake the urgent
fundamental reforms it needs to pull out of its economic difficulties.
Page 14 |
BOLIVIA
The outcome of the autonomy
referendum in Santa Cruz poses a critical challenge for President
Morales and will make for growing tensions. there is some doubt that
the nation-wide plebiscite, offered by Morales, will resolve the
problem.
Page 5 |
SAUDI
ARABIA
With inflation now running at a 27 year high,
the authorities are under growing pressure to revalue the riyal one way
or another, but the Central Bank is resisting and is calling on the
government to curtail public spending instead.
Page 15 |
BULGARIA
PM Stanishev has revamped his
Cabinet to persuade the EU that the government is serious about
fighting corruption and organized crime. Chance are, Brussels will want
more tangible proof. the economy will continue to make good progress
this year, the likelihood of a slowdown notwithstanding.
Page 6 |
TURKEY
A fall-off in economic growth an a
steep rise in inflation are troublesome in a country that depends on
foreign financing. This is, therefore, a bad time for Turkey to have to
go through the turmoil of a showdown between its Islamist government
and the secularist "old guard."
Page 16 |
CROATIA
Economic growth will continue to
contract as the year progresses, but this will merely bring it down to
a more sustainable level. Having opened negotiations on two new
chapters in its EU accession talks, Croatia is now far ahead of Turkey
in its quest to join the Union.
Page 8 |
EXCHANGE
MARKET TRENDS
FX FORECASTS
STATISTICAL TABLES
Internat'l. interest rates, spot
and Forward exchange rates, EURO, SDR, GOLD |
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